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Many bookies use averages in sports handicapping. It is the most straightforward method to go about it but it certainly is not the most accurate. Especially when dealing with football teams, where one or two extremely high-scoring game can distort the statistics. And though it may work most of the time just fine, this technique is not enough for a bookie looking to do real business. Minimizing risk is a priority. And thus, we should consider another approach, and medians are just the way to go.
Medians are numbers that, when you split a group of numbers in two, end up in the middle, separating the higher numbers in the group from the lower numbers. First, you order the numbers from higher to lower, and then pick the number in the middle: that is your median. For example, in the group (2, 6, 10, 14, 17, 20, 22), the median is 14, since it is right in the middle splitting the group in two.
Using a real world example, in 2007 the New York Giants allowed 190 points over nine games. Using the typical approach, that will result in a 21.1 average. But on closer inspection, you will notice that on a single game against the Dallas Cowboys, the Giants allowed 45 points. The team allowed 17 or fewer points around 55% of the time; so in actuality, the Giants are a better team than the scoring average indicates.
To illustrate the practical applications of medians in the sportsbooking industry, let’s take a look at the 2007 Minnesota Vikings football team.
Over the course of the nine games of the season, the Vikings scored 166 points for an average of 18.4 points, and allowed 188 points, which average 21.1 points per game. Here is the full list of results:
Atlanta 24-3
Detroit 17-20
Kansas City 10-13
Green Bay 16-23
Chicago 34-31
Dallas 14-24
Philadelphia 16-23
San Diego 35-17
Green Bay 0-34
After taking a good look at that, you should come up with 17 as the median for the Vikings, showing the Minnesota defense allowing a 23-point median. This is slightly lower than the average, but which could make the difference between you making a profit or not.
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